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Prediction for CME (2024-12-14T11:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-14T11:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35734/-1
CME Note: No source has been found for this very slow CME with multiple consecutive faint fronts, so it is possibly backsided. Its start time could be even earlier.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-19T21:00Z (-15.0h, +15.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

expected arrival time: 2024-12-19T21:00:00
time_uncertainty: 15
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 5
probability_of_arrival: 70
 

From SIDC URSIGRAM issued 2024 Dec 15 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 41215
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2024, 1230UT
...
A faint, slow CME was observed earlier in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, around 11:20 UTC on December 14, lifting of the west limb. It is most likely associated with flaring activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917).
Current analysis suggests a small chance for a mild glancing blow arriving at Earth starting from the UTC evening on December 19, but it may be indistinguishable from the previous case.

Lead Time: 105.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-15T11:49Z

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